Two weeks after the Pahalgam incident, India launches missile strikes on 3 locations in Pakistan. At least 3 people killed in the incident and 12 injured. Indian military said they avoided Pakistani military sites in the attack.

Context of the Tensions

• Pahalgam Terrorist Attack: On April 22, 2025, gunmen killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam, marking one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in India in nearly two decades. India has accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers, escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
• Historical Rivalry: India and Pakistan have a long-standing conflict over Kashmir, a region both claim in full but administer in parts. The two countries have fought multiple wars and skirmishes over the region since their partition in 1947.
• Recent Military Posturing: Following the attack, both nations have engaged in military drills and missile tests. Pakistan conducted two missile tests (Abdali and Fatah missiles) on May 3 and May 5, respectively, to demonstrate readiness. India, meanwhile, ordered nationwide civil defense drills on May 7 to prepare for potential conflict.

Indian Missile Strikes

• Operation Sindoor: On May 7, 2025, India reportedly launched “Operation Sindoor,” targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). According to posts on X and news reports, the Indian Armed Forces conducted missile strikes on locations including Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Bahawalpur, which are believed to house bases of terrorist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba.
• Nature of the Strikes: The strikes were described as “focused and precise,” targeting only known terrorist camps and avoiding Pakistani civilian, economic, or military targets to minimize escalation. India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, reportedly emphasized the non-escalatory nature of the operation.
• Weapons Used: Some reports suggest that India used standoff weapons launched from fighter jets, which are difficult to intercept, rather than traditional missiles.
• Pakistani Response: Pakistan’s military, through its Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, confirmed the strikes, labeling them a “cowardly attack.” Pakistan vowed to respond “at a time and place of its own choosing,” warning that India’s actions would lead to “enduring grief.”

International Reactions

• United Nations: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern over the rising tensions and urged both nations to exercise restraint to avoid a military confrontation that could “spin out of control.” The UN Security Council held closed-door consultations on the situation.
• Iran’s Mediation: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan on May 5 and planned to visit India on May 8 to mediate and reduce tensions.
• Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the Pahalgam attack in a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressing support for India’s fight against terrorism.
• United States and China: Both countries have urged restraint to prevent further escalation.
• Gulf Allies: Pakistan has sought support from Gulf countries to de-escalate tensions.

Additional Developments

• Civil Defense Drills in India: On May 7, India conducted nationwide civil defense drills across 244 districts, testing air raid sirens, blackout protocols, and evacuation plans. These drills were criticized by some as a distraction but were widely implemented.
• Airspace Restrictions: Major airlines have begun avoiding Pakistan’s airspace due to the heightened risk of conflict.
• Indus Waters Treaty: Tensions have also flared over water rights, with Pakistan warning of strikes if India builds structures on the Indus River in violation of the suspended Indus Waters Treaty.
• Economic Impact: Moody’s warned that sustained escalation could hamper Pakistan’s economic growth and fiscal consolidation efforts.

Risks and Concerns

• Nuclear Threat: Both nations possess nuclear arsenals, raising fears of catastrophic escalation. Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia warned of using the “full spectrum of power,” including nuclear weapons, if attacked or if water supplies are disrupted.
• Military Capabilities: India has bolstered its defenses with systems like the Russian S-400, while Pakistan has acquired China’s HQ-9. Both sides have advanced missile systems, increasing the risk of a limited conflict spiraling out of control.
• Public Sentiment: Experts, including former Indian diplomat Ajay Bisaria, have cautioned against war decisions driven by public emotion, emphasizing the need for strategic timing and secrecy in military operations.